Yesterday, a Quinnipiac poll broke news that President Trump’s approval rating has dropped to unusual and discouraging lows for a new President- 35%. Even among the core Trump demographic- white men without a college degree, only 51% approve of Trump’s job performance. 67% of whites without a college degree voted for Trump during the election, since then he’s dropped 16 percentage points within his core demographic.
The implications of Trump’s unpopularity can have far-reaching effects on the 2018 midterms in favour of Democrats, some political analysts are expecting a groundswell of anti-Trump fervor and Democratic turnout in 2018 to vote in Democratic control of the Senate and House.
According to the Cook Political Report, in the last four midterm elections that ended with the party that controls the White House losing control of one or both houses of Congress, the President had an approval rating below 85% within his own party and independent approval ratings in the low 40’s. A recent Gallup survey found the Republican approval rating of Trump at 85%, however only 33% of Independent’s approve of Donald Trump.
“If he drops a few points among GOPers, Trump’s ratings today would look exactly like those of President George W. Bush right before his party was routed in 2006,” Cook wrote.
The main difference here is that, even without GOP approval of Trump dropping, the current President is experiencing unprecedented disapproval from those outside the Republican party- 81% of Democrats strongly disapprove of Trump and the all-important Independent demographic has a 33% approval rating of Trump. An angry voter is an active voter, and if angry Democrats turnout as expected they may be able to vote in a Democratic majority in the Senate, House, or both.
However, the seats up for grabs in 2018 put Democrats at a disadvantage because of a mix of Republican gerrymandering and chance. Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to reclaim the house, a feat that has only recently been accomplished in 2008 when Bush’s unpopularity lead to a groundswell of anti-Republican fervor and Democrat turnout. In the Senate, Democrats will have to protect their 25 seats and gain three, and only eight Republican seats are up for election.
The election map in 2018 does no favours for Democrats, but the unprecedented disapproval of Trump early into his tenure as President offers a golden opportunity to stage an upset and win back control of at least one Congressional house. This midterm election is one of the most important in recent memory, to reclaim power in 2020 Democrats first need to win Congress back before they win back the Presidency.
Most people know about Donald Trump’s real estate empire, but do you know about his dirty backdealings and FBI investigations into his empire? Or when he paid 300 undocumented Polish workers in vodka while forcing them to cut through live electrical wire? In our book review of Donald Trump: The Candidate, we dig into these mostly unknown stories about Donald Trump’s dirty business empire. Read here to learn our President’s shady real estate dealings.