Trump’s abysmal approval rating has made headlines since his first day in office, hovering around 40% according to Gallup and is the lowest approval rating for a President in their first 100 days of office ever. What generally isn’t discussed however is that Trump still enjoys strong support from the voting base that elected him- most would think his supporters would abandon him after he introduced legislation that was going to hurt them the most if passed, but that’s not the case currently.
Among Americans at large, his approval rating may be 40%, but among Americans who voted for Trump, 92% still support him and believe he has “done well or better than expected.” Most of the unprecedentedly low approval rating comes from Democrats and Independents, with 7% of Democrats approving of Trump.
What’s most interesting in this trend is that the polls finding still-powerful support for Trump from his voting base come a couple weeks after Trump failed to pass his healthcare plan- a healthcare plan that was poised to hurt Trump voting districts the most. Empirical analysis from Bloomberg found that, under Trumpcare, Trump voting districts will receive only ⅓ of the tax benefits Clinton-voting districts will, and that Trump voting districts will have their uninsured rates skyrocket while Clinton-voting districts uninsured rates will barely budge.
The leaves the question of how much can Trump keep spitting in the face of his electoral base before their pro-Trump support declines? Trumpcare would have had a substantially negative impact on the lives of the vast majority of Trump supporters, whether through a degradation of their local community or maybe the loss of insurance themselves, yet after the harmful bill spectacularly failed in a Republican Congress due to ineptitude, his approval rate with them still hasn’t budged.
Liberals may also be too optimistic, Trump is following the same exact strategy he followed in 2016 to win the election, so forecasting a one-term President Trump based off his approval ratings is a poor projection. Trump banks on two things- rabid support among working class and evangelical voters that will enormously increase turnout, and reluctant votes from Republicans who disapprove of him but prefer a Republican in the White House rather than a Democrat.
Essentially, Trump feeds off a powerful voting base that makes him invaluable to the Republican party, all the while forcing traditional Republicans to vote for him out of partisan spite. The strategy still isn’t failing, the average Trump voter still support him and the average Republican is still a reluctant Trump voter, Democrats are going to need intelligent planning to inspire groundswell support among anti-Trump voters for the 2018 midterms and the 2020 Presidential Election. Only time will tell whether Trump will be a one term President or not.
Most people know about Donald Trump’s real estate empire, but do you know about his dirty backdealings and FBI investigations into his empire? Or when he paid 300 undocumented Polish workers in vodka while forcing them to cut through live electrical wire? In our book review of Donald Trump: The Candidate, we dig into these mostly unknown stories about Donald Trump’s dirty business empire. Read here to learn our President’s shady real estate dealings.